A couple figures to aid the discussion. Hot off the presses from todays polling:
Biden versus Trump (up to date as of today):
Biden versus Trump and Clinton versus Trump (X axis is days out from the election):
For edification, Clinton versus Trump 2016 (keep in mind that Trump and Clintons polling numbers in the early parts of this figure represent being in contested primaries):
Another version comparing 2016 to 2024 (but more focused on the period of time before the election):
I don’t find these kinds of comparisons and “latest data points” to be particularly helpful in these kinds of discussions. Voter sentiment is fickle, and how you quantify the “Uncommitted” movement will affect how the data is presented.
We don’t know how the Uncommitted will actually vote in November, though we can be certain at least some will not vote for Biden if nothing changes. It’s a political game of chicken, and it’s Biden’s move.
We don’t know how the Uncommitted will actually vote in November, though we can be certain at least some will not vote for Biden if nothing changes. It’s a political game of chicken, and it’s Biden’s move.
Clinton lost Michigan by 0.2% and it cost her the election. Her campaign opted to not focus on the rust belt and delivered us Trump in the first place.
Biden is losing this election, and I think if a Trump presidency concerns you, its especially worth considering.
Biden can’t afford to lose any voters in Michigan. His policies are working against his ability to gather support in the 2024 election. We can’t wait until after November to have this conversation. It needs to happen now.
Again, if Trump can’t win more than 65% of his own base as a former president, I’m not that worried. The dude has never won the popular it’s and sure as hell won’t this time. He’s definitely lost support. I will place money that Biden will win an even larger popular and electoral vote victory this time.
I would love to have your confidence bro. I really would. I just look at the polling, I look at the messaging, I look at the fervency of the bases, and I don’t have it.
Trumps voters are excited as all hell to vote for him. He’s got evangelicals perhaps literally worshiping him.
I just dont see what you are seeing…
I’ll bet you here and now Biden wins. Save this post.
Saved. Love to gamble.
I’ll give you 1:1 on Biden winning. $20 enough to make it fun?
Also, I’d like to ask for 20:1 on Biden not being the candidate. If you want those odds, I’d also like to bet $20. (you’d be the house, so if I win, thats a $400 payout on you).
We can save this post and then venmo or paypal, whatever is preferred.
Also good with just the first bets or will hear counter odds on Biden not being the candidate.
100% Biden is the candidate. 100% Biden beats Trump.
Who should Biden worry about more? Getting the left wing of his party to nominate him, or getting the general electorate to the polls in November? It’s a no brainer calculation.
I mean, the Democrats have been screwing the actually Left for decades now so…
If y’all actually voted, Democrats would care about you more. The Left is fickle and the DNC knows it.
The left actually demands politicians earn their vote. Politics isn’t supposed to be a team sport in the US. The entire reason we have elections so often is to make sure the voters approve of their representatives. That means voting out of team loyalty is a subversion of the system. And the charge of being fickle and lazy is undemocratic propaganda.
Democracy is about compromise. By refusing to compromise you’re ceding power to the worst option.
Compromise requires both sides. And supplying a genocide isn’t compromise.
“Not genocide” is not an option.
It is. Biden can stop providing arms to Israel.
That’s bullshit. Leftists vote, the problem is that liberals aren’t leftists and only care about serving Capital.
So there’s more liberals than leftists. That’s democracy.
Your point is wrong, though. Leftists voting for dems will only encourage more liberal policy, not leftist policy. You’re advocating for leftists voting third party and spoiling their vote.
I’m advocating for leftists voting for the most left Dem they can get in any given race. Not for splitting the vote.
Liberal is better than fascist, correct?
The most “left” dem is right wing and wants to implement right wing solutions. The dems are not left.
