NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
The headline is really burying the lead here and it actually pisses me off quite a bit.
Hurricane forecasting models that have been running for years and have been established to at least be moderately predictive are unanimously predicting the worst hurricane season EVER predicted by computer models.
The temperatures west of Africa in the Atlantic where hurricanes are born and grow are already at levels that the Atlantic only reaches in mid July even in warmer years. This should be incredibly concerning to everybody on the east coast+gulf coast of the US and living in the Caribbean.
All of the hurricane forecasters I have seen are shocked. All of the parameters are in place for a perfect storm of a horrific hurricane season.
At this point all we can do is cross our fingers and hope most of the bad hurricanes miss landfall and fly out into the Atlantic but we are gambling with money we don’t have here.
Global sea surface temperatures, the yellow line is 2023, temperatures have been smashing records going back 30 years or so every single day for all of 2023 (starting in March) up until present day.
Temps look like they are going down, but even if this current downward trend continues an absolutely devastating amount of heat is being poured into the oceans. The next couple of weeks will tell us if this was some kind of weird super el nino we are coming out of and that is where the heating was coming from or whether we have entered a new climate paradigm and if that doesn’t scare you that climate scientists can’t tell yet you are frankly an idiot.
All the alarms are blaring, this is giving lots of indications we are on a far worse and faster timeline than the current mainstream media/politics narrative is acknowledging (and by extension what climate scientists can actually say in public without getting shamed or fired).
Tornados, hurricanes, etc… All I want to ask these conservative climate change deniers living in these areas is whether they still believe the bullshit.
